War of the two premiers*

A skirmish has broken out between UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond over the date for a referendum on Scotland's independence, and what question is to be asked. It appears Mr Cameron is trying to seize the initiative in the debate, which so far has been dictated by Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) since it won a majority at the last Scottish elections (as an aside, Scotland uses a system very similar to MMP - which as we know is not meant to produce single-party majority governments - so to win a majority was an amazing outcome).

Two facets of this debate make for interesting - if a little worrying - reading for the Republican Movement. Firstly, the timing of the referendum has clearly become the major issue. Mr Cameron wants the vote to occur sooner, in the next 18 months, which he argues would resolve any uncertainties for business in a difficult economic environment. Mr Salmond argues he was elected on a platform of holding a referendum in the second half of this term of Scottish Parliament (which has a five-year term), that is sometime between 2014 - 2016.

The underlying reason Salmond appears to want the referendum to happen later is that the 700th anniversary of an important battle in Scotland's wars for independence (the battle of Bannockburn) falls on 24 June 2014. This might provide the patriotic boost Scottish independence needs to get over the line. On the other hand, Cameron knows there's a majority now who support keeping Scotland in the United Kingdom. Holding the referendum sooner would enable the pro-union parties to exploit this.

As with republicanism in New Zealand, it appears support for Scottish independence increases as the issue is discussed. A compressed debate favours the status quo. The polls are showing support growing by around 10% since the SNP was elected in May. In another 6 months Scottish independence could be recording a majority.

Secondly, there's shenanigans over the question(s) to be asked. As the Australian republicans will tell you, he who asks the question has a huge influence over the outcome. It appears part of SNP's strategy is to use the referendum to expand the powers of Scotland's government as an alternative to full independence. Their proposed referendum would have the independent Scotland question and a so-called "devo-max" option. It appears strategically this is part of the SNP's long-term game. If they don't win independence this time, at least they'll expand the power of the Scottish government.

It appears Mr Cameron doesn't want either option to succeed. He's proposed that the question be "clear" meaning there would only be a referendum on Scottish independence. There won't be any strategic voting. The downside to this is that the only way to prevent the referendum from being defined by the supporters of independence is for Mr Cameron to intervene. In doing so, the UK government creates the sentiment that will fuel pro-independence sentiment.

Both these two factors are important to the New Zealand republic debate - and make the independence referendum in Scotland fascinating viewing.