Howard's great gamble - enough to save the monarchy?

The likely consequence of a defeat is going to be that Australia either stumbles along for years, even decades, with a monarchy nobody wants or moves to a republic with a directly elected President - a scenario [John] Howard, and almost all the conservatives vehemently oppose.

-Malcolm Turnbull, October 1999.

Former Prime Minister John Howard was triumphant in revisiting the defeat of the republic referendum this week. Sadly, it seems that his warning that republican sentiment in Australia is far from dead fell on deaf ears. The obstacles to a republic in Australia are not insurmountable, particularly when it comes to direct election. Moreover the main attack on the republic in 1999 was that the model proposed was a "politician's republic" - the same lines of attack are still being used by monarchists today.

But the simple truth is that time is not on the monarchists side. As the ABC relates, the crowd at the Australians for Constitutional Monarchy's event with John Howard was predominantly made up of older Australians. The passionate supporters of the monarchy are getting older. At the same time, younger Australians are more apathetic to the monarchy than any other group, although don't support a republic by a majority either. It is only a matter of time before another round of consultation and a constitutional referendum is put before the people of Australia. The claim that a directly elected head of state would be unpopular because of certain constitutional issues remains untested.

That is why Buckingham Palace is sending Prince William to Australia and New Zealand, argues The Telegraph. The future of the monarchy now depends on the popularity of the Queen carrying over not to the direct heir to the throne, Prince Charles, but instead to Prince William. This is a risky strategy; Prince Charles will succeed his mother no matter what. By the time Prince William comes to the throne his good looks, which The Telegraph attributes to his popularity, may have faded. And if current demographic indications are correct, support for the monarchy would've declined further.