In this edition: Poll: 41% Of NZers Want Republic; PM: No Republic Discussion; New Zealanders May Get Say Under Proposed Policy; The Way Forward by Lewis Holden; Spoken: Quotes in the republic debate; The Case For A Republic: A Royal Commission on Republicanism; Poll question: Should the Prime Minister have discussed republicanism with the Queen?

Poll: 41% Of NZers Want Republic

AN INDEPENDENT POLL commissioned by the Republican Movement has found New Zealanders are increasingly looking to the future as a republic. 41% of those surveyed in the poll stated they wanted New Zealand to become a republic, and did not want Prince Charles to become New Zealand's head of state when the Queen's reign ends. 43% continue to support the status quo, with 15% stating they do not know either way.

The results show the importance of addressing the growing public mood for change. A large number of voting New Zealanders - about 1.4 million - want our country to become a republic either now or when the Queen's reign ends.

This latest poll comes after a small Colmar-Brunton poll in March found 66% of New Zealanders supported "the Queen as head of state" - showing significant good feeling towards the Queen. The Republican Movement's poll finds that the good-will does not transfer to her son, Prince Charles, who inherits the role irrespective of what New Zealanders want.

As Republic notes below, after lunching with the Queen earlier this month, Helen Clark said she was not going to lead the change to a republic. This poll reflects that a new chapter in New Zealand's national identity is approaching. The Prime Minister must show vision and leadership in that regard.

A similar poll by The Sunday Age in Australia, published 13 April 2008, found 69% of the 557 voters in New South Wales and Victoria supported a republic once the Queen's reign ends.

PM: No Republic Discussion

REPUBLICANISM WAS NOT a topic for discussion at the Prime Minister's lunch with the Queen earlier this month. In an interview on the BBC's Hardtalk program, Helen Clark disclosed that she discussed "Commonwealth issues" with the Sovereign. Royal watchers had speculated to The Dominion Post that republicanism would feature at the lunch, which followed a service for the late Sir Edmund Hillary at Windsor Castle.

New Zealanders May Get Say Under Proposed Policy

NEW ZEALANDERS COULD get to have their say on who their head of state is under a policy proposal put forward by the Republican Movement to UnitedFuture. As Republic reported last month, the party has been conducting policy consultation on national identity. The Republican Movement's submission argued UnitedFuture should take up the challenge republicanism poses to New Zealand's national identity.

To meet this challenge, the Republican Movement has proposed in its submission that UnitedFuture backs a commission on republicanism. Such a commission would look at the issues associated with republicanism, and be followed by referendums on the issue.

Rudd Government reopens Australian Republic Debate

REPUBLICANS IN AUSTRALIA have welcomed the recommendation of the Rudd Government's Australia 2020 Summit calling for a plebiscite on the issue of whether Australia should become a republic followed by a full referendum on the issue. Some media outlets have speculated that the plebiscite could occur as soon as the 2010 federal election, with the final referendum occurring in 2013.

Chair of the Australian Republican Movement Major General Mike Keating stated "This recommendation for an Australian Republic accords broadly with the Australian Republican Movement's roadmap to a republic. The 2020 Summit has endorsed a good process on how to best achieve a republic".

Meanwhile, Malcolm Turnbull, the former Chairman of the Australian Republican Movement turned Liberal MP, warned Kevin Rudd not to rush the republic debate. He also noted "[the debate] cannot be used as a political tool by a prime minister who wants to pick up an issue and run with it in order to glorify himself. The public are very sceptical about this". The current Governor-General, Major General Michael Jeffery, also entered the republic debate. The outgoing viceroy stated "I do emphasise very strongly that before people can make an informed decision on better ways of governing ourselves - including perhaps whether we go to a republic or not - you've got to have a good understanding of how your present system works, its strengths and weaknesses."

The Case for a Republic

This month, Wellington blogger Poneke takes a critical look at the Republican Movement's poll, and recommends a Royal commission on a republic

New Zealanders seem almost evenly divided on whether we should become a republic when the Queen’s reign ends, according to an opinion poll taken for the Republican Movement.

While a hopeful sign that the public may yet tire of living under a distant monarch, the poll is certainly not a sign of strong public support for a republic, either.

I believe that once New Zealand is a republic, most people will wonder why we remained for so long a monarchy. It really seems an absurdity to have as our head of state a queen who lives in London.

It is an absurdity highlighted in January, when we witnessed the spectacle of our legal head of state being so remote that when the greatest living New Zealander died, she could not even find a relative to come here for his funeral, despite the huge importance of him to her own coronation.

The division shown up by this poll is not impossible to overcome, though I am not sure I agree with Lewis's comment that "these results show the importance of addressing the growing public mood for change [my emphasis]."

Lewis says this poll comes after a March Colmar-Brunton poll found 66 per cent of New Zealanders supported "the Queen as head of state." Presumably he is saying the numbers in support of the monarchy have since fallen to the 43 per cent in his poll. But they were completely different questions.

I think the two polls show that a lot of people like having the present Queen as head of state, but fewer would be happy with Charles. Republicans need to build on this to start a genuine, popular push for a republic. We don't have anything like that at present, and there is certainly no political leadership being given.

Lewis alludes to this when he says: "After lunching with the Queen earlier this month, Helen Clark said she was not going to lead the change to a republic... The Prime Minister must show vision and leadership in that regard." But she won't, and nor will anyone else with her mana, because they are far too worried about alienating voters over an issue that has no urgent public support.

I think what is needed is a royal commission on our constitutional structure that can look at issues like this and suggest a way forward, the way the 1986 royal commission on the electoral system successfully did with MMP. It could examine and recommend a written constitution as well as the style of republic we should become.

While it would be rather ironic to have a royal commission look at doing away with the royals, a royal commission is our highest form of commission of inquiry, used for matters of great importance, and would thus be essential.

The biggest risk of a politician leading the republican cause is voter cynicism. We basically got MMP because most of our political leaders opposed it. The surest way to ensure we stay a monarchy is for our political leaders to promote a republic.

The public needs to see that becoming a republic does not mean that Helen Clark or John Key will become our president. Many republics retain a Westminster-style system with a prime minister who, like ours, is the leader of the party with the most backing in parliament. Their presidents are merely constitutional figureheads with a role similar to that of our governor general.

India, with its quasi-elected, non-executive president who fills the role our governor-general does, is the largest and most successful example, but there are many, many more. Ireland has a directly elected president who nonetheless is still a non-executive figurehead, with its government led by the prime minister, who, as with India, New Zealand and elsewhere, is normally the leader of the party with the most seats in Parliament.

I don't think New Zealand voters will wear an American-style or even French-style presidential system any decade soon, but if a royal commission makes a good case for a republic with a president and prime minister on the Irish or Indian models, it would have a good chance of winning public support in the referendum that would be needed to adopt it, especially as the prospect of Prince Charles becoming our head of state draws ever closer.

Republican Movement News

THE REPUBLICAN MOVEMENT's Annual General Meeting will be held on Friday 9th May at 4:30. Level 12, St John House, 114 The Terrace, Wellington. Republican Movement members should watch their inbox for National Council nomination and voting information.