Roy Morgan research has released a poll on republican sentiment in Australia, finding 45% of those surveyed aged 18 and over support a republic, with 42% supporting the monarchy. Support for a republic has decreased by 6% from the 2005 poll, when 51% of those surveyed support a republic.

There are two additional factors which should be of concern to both sides of the deabte. The poll found 64% of those surveyed aged 14 - 17 said they supported the monarchy. The monarchists are making a lot of noise about this result, claiming it kills off a republic. That is nonsense - as the head of the Australian Republican Movement, Major-General Mike Keating states in The Sydney Morning Herald, the result depends on the question, which asks if Australians want an "elected President". To claim support amongst the young is in decline on this basis is non sense - the question implies a particular model.Furthermore, it's unlikely that that particular age group will retain exactly the same level of support for the monarchy - as we see below, there's another factor which should worry the monarchists.

Another question in the poll revealed only 32% of electors surveyed would support the monarchy if Prince Charles became King. Under Charles' reign, support for a republic would soar to 57% of electors. For monarchists, the concern must be the Prince Charles could easily wash away any gains they've made with younger electors. This result also vindicates former ARM Chairman Malcolm Turnbull's view that there shouldn't be another republic referendum until after the end of the Queen's reign.

On the face of it, this is not a good result for republicans in Australia. The New Zealand Herald has an analysis of the poll which essentially argues the issue should go on the backburner for the time being. That's what Rudd might do, although support within the ALP for a republic is still very high. Time will tell.