Is John Key a monarchist? Would a National-led Government bring back from the dead things like the Queen's Counsel titles, the Queen's Portrait in public buildings, or require kids to learn "God Save the Queen" and generally take a pro-monarchy policy? There's no simple answer to these questions, but there are a couple of clues either way.
The Weekend Herald carries an extensive article on National leader John Key, which is part of a series on the man who may become Prime Minister following this year's general election. There's no mention of Key's attitude to the monarchy, and in the selection of photographs of Key's life so far, one stands out: a picture of Key meeting the Queen in 1998 (right).
However, in a recent interview with Guyon Espiner, following another poll from TVNZ on the republic issue, John Key stated:
"We've always had a bit of a stronger association with the United Kingdom and the monarchy is still pretty popular out here so I'm not convinced it will be a big issue in the short term."
This is a fascinating response - firstly because once again it shows New Zealanders' attitudes to the monarchy relate to our feelings towards the United Kingdom, but also Key's caveat that republicanism is not a big issue issue "in the short term". This implies that it could very well be in the medium to long term. Perhaps Mr Key's advisers have seen the polling undertaken by the Republican Movement, showing support for the monarchy plummeting once the Queen's reign ends.
The real test will, of course, be if National wins office at this year's election. An influx of newer National MPs from down the party's list would see a greater number of young neo-liberal members of the new right in Parliament, who could very well sway votes in caucus.
The monarchists know the danger of neo-liberals to the monarchy. Writing in 1999, Noel Cox of the Monarchist League stated:
"The immediate origins of Bolger's call for a republic belong in the neo-liberalism adopted by successive governments since 1984. The wish to bury the colonial inheritance, to face towards multiculturalism, and to locate New Zealand firmly in Asia was a conscious, market-related choice forced by external developments."
Bruce Jesson wrote in 1996 that the "new right" of New Zealand politics - being young and unconvinced that tradition should determine the country's future - would be a dominante force in the republic debate in years to come. With Key, Jesson might just have been right.
