Opinion poll: 44% republic, 50% monarchy after the Queen

Lord Ashcroft’s recent “Living the Kiwi Dream” polling, the republic question was asked to the 5,000 surveyed:

There was a much broader spread of opinion on the question of New Zealand’s constitution when the reign of Queen Elizabeth II comes to an end. For New Zealanders as a whole, the centre of gravity of opinion was towards the view that the country should remain a constitutional monarchy, with ACT and National voters taking this view the most strongly. While Labour voters were close to neutral on the subject, those who voted Green in 2020 leaned strongly to the view that New Zealand should become a republic. Asian-background (55%) and Māori voters (56%) were more likely than white voters (44%) to lean towards New Zealand becoming a republic, but there was relatively little variation between age groups: 35-44s were the most likely to want a change in the constitution after the current reign (53%), compared to 40% of those aged 65 or over

This is largely in line with our own polling from earlier this year, albeit tipped towards support for the monarchy, whereas our poll showed a plurality for a republic. Another tidbit - where popularity of individuals was polled on - which might explain the above:

The most popular on the list was Barack Obama, closely followed by Queen Elizabeth II (who topped the list for ACT, National and NZ First voters, and for people aged over 55)

This is not surprising either - given the Queen’s popularity, particularly among parties that record strong support for the monarchy, it’s not hard to see how the two factors are related.